Here is what will happen over the next 5 years in AI

Good morning.

The AI industry is showing us all kind of signs that we’re approaching a “bubble”. People are getting disillusioned with AI and its sometimes “smoke and mirror” tricks.

There are voices out there claiming “AI” is a sham. I personally don’t think so - but with something so disruptive, you will see contrarian voices pipe up.

Like science fiction author Joanna Maciejewska said somewhere : “I want AI to do my laundry and dishes so that i can do art and writing, not for AI to do art and writing so that I can do my laundry and dishes.”.

We’ll dive deeper into that next week.

But for this week - let’s have some fun.

In a weird corner of the internet lives someone called David Shapiro.

David has a respectable 157K subscribers on YouTube, and David’s niche is making predictions on AI.

There’s this one video that popped up this week that caught my eye. In this video, he lays out the next 5 years of AI, and he claims that his sources for this are insiders in the industry. You know, people working at OpenAI and these other places.

If you don’t want to watch the whole thing : let’s quickly give you what to expect.

2024 : By the end of this year, we’ll have GPT-5 and Claude 4 , multimodal models, condensed models and the first humanoid robots (but still very basic). All this is indeed going to happen if you follow the news.

2025: This is the year of disillusionment with AI for the large public. The so-called “through of disillusionment”. As these companies are building enormous datacenters, no giant breakthroughs are expected. The real revolution will play out in the background as businesses incorporate AI into their workflows and new AI-related jobs emerge. The general public will be very skeptical about AI. Expect lots of “opinion pieces” in newspapers.

2026:
GPT-6 and Claude 6 are released as the first true “general-purpose” models. Generative AI has become so good it crosses the uncanny valley, meaning it can generate pictures and video that are indistinguishable from real pictures and footage. Humanoid robots will arrive on the factory floors, working alongside humans.

2027:
AGI arrives. Artificial general Intelligence, means that artificial intelligence will be at least as smart as any human on any task. This will cause widespread disruption, but there will be two areas where this will be most visible. There will be creative disruption in the book publishing industry and Hollywood as movies can now be created from prompts. No more need for actors or CGI. Capitalism will make sure that corporations are going to push for widespread adoption. Regulatory bodies will try to stop this.

2028:
This is an election year in the US and AGI will have transformed the world as we know it today. AI will be a central topic in the election. Mass layoffs can be expected, and social unrest and rebellion can result. Society goes into full transition mode. There are physical attacks on data centers. Governments are looking at Universal Basic Income. Basically, everyone is going to get an allowance while the robots do our work. China and the US are getting into a conflict over AI dominance.

2029:
After a year of profound unrest - AI will experience its quantum leap. The combination of AI and quantum computing will bring fusion energy to the masses and bring medical breakthroughs. Expect diseases like certain cancers to be declared as “curable”. The first cybernetic implants arrive. Robots will arrive in our homes as butlers or assistants.

2030
The official beginning of the “Intelligence Age” or the 4th Industrial Revolution. There will be major changes in economics and social structures, and life expectancy will increase. Humanity will need to adapt to this new paradigm where our work is done for us.

So, what do you think. Is Dave Shapiro correct in his predictions?

Welcome to the Blacklynx Brief

AI News
Is Google Search In Trouble ?

• OpenAI has unveiled SearchGPT, an AI-powered search engine prototype, aimed at rivaling Google’s search dominance. SearchGPT offers summarized search results with attribution links and allows follow-up questions, initially available to 10,000 test users.

• Google DeepMind's AI systems, AlphaProof and AlphaGeometry 2, achieved a notable milestone by scoring 28 out of 42 points at the International Mathematical Olympiad. This marks a significant improvement in AI's ability to solve complex math problems.

• OpenAI CEO Sam Altman calls for a US-led global coalition to ensure AI development benefits democratic nations over authoritarian regimes. In his op-ed, he outlines four key actions: security measures, infrastructure investment, commercial diplomacy, and new AI governance models. Altman stresses the urgency of maintaining the US lead in AI to prevent authoritarian dominance.

• Apple's new AI features, known as Apple Intelligence, will not be included in the initial release of iOS 18 and iPadOS 18 in September but will roll out starting October, with full deployment stretching into 2025. Early access for developers begins with iOS 18.1 and iPadOS 18.1 betas this week. The delay reflects Apple's commitment to stable releases, even as it signs the White House’s AI development pledge.

• The Paris 2024 Summer Olympics utilize AI, with AthleteGPT offering 24/7 assistance to athletes, AI-powered 3D athlete tracking providing biomechanical insights, and AI aiding in talent scouting and delivering personalized content to viewers. This marks a significant shift towards AI adoption in sports, potentially transforming how events are experienced and managed.

• Meta introduced Segment Anything Model 2 (SAM 2), an AI model that can identify and track objects in real-time across video frames. This extends Meta's image segmentation capabilities to video, with potential applications in video editing, mixed reality, and scientific research. SAM 2 is open-sourced, with a large annotated database of 50,000 training videos available.

• At SIGGRAPH 2024, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg and NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang discussed their vision for AI, emphasizing the importance of open-source AI and its potential to transform social media, education, entertainment, and work. They highlighted Llama 3.1 as a significant milestone and predicted more fluid AI interactions and personalized content generation.

• Runway announced that Gen-3 Alpha, their AI text-to-video generation model, now supports creating videos from still images. This feature enhances artistic control and consistency, offering 5 or 10-second video generations via Runway's subscription service. The new capability opens up creative possibilities, though it requires paid credits to use.

• OpenAI is rolling out its 'Advanced Voice Mode' for ChatGPT Plus users, offering natural, real-time conversations and the ability to detect and respond to emotions. Initially available to a small group, it plans to expand access by fall 2024, with video and screen-sharing capabilities to come later. This feature could revolutionize applications in customer service and mental health support.

• Avi Schiffmann unveiled Friend, a $99 AI-powered wearable designed to combat loneliness by providing constant companionship. The pendant-like device engages in conversations and offers emotional support, with preorders open and shipping expected in January 2025. While it offers a unique focus on companionship, it faces challenges related to trust and privacy.

• Perplexity launched a "Publishers' Program" to share ad revenue with media partners, addressing plagiarism accusations and supporting quality journalism. Initial partners, including Time and Der Spiegel, will receive a share of ad revenue and access to Perplexity's tools. This initiative aims to balance AI's impact on media, though challenges with publishers remain.

• Google unveiled Gemma 2 2B, a highly efficient AI model with 2.6 billion parameters that outperforms much larger models like GPT-3.5 on key benchmarks. Trained on a massive dataset, it is open-source and available for download, highlighting Google's leadership in small, efficient AI models suitable for on-device use.

• Yum Brands announced plans to implement AI-powered drive-thru ordering in hundreds of Taco Bell restaurants in the U.S. by the end of 2024. The AI has shown improved accuracy, reduced wait times, and increased upselling in tests, potentially transforming the fast-food industry if successful.

• Researchers at USC have used AI to reprogram glioblastoma cells into immune-activating dendritic cells in mouse models, significantly increasing survival chances. This breakthrough could revolutionize treatment for glioblastoma, the deadliest adult brain cancer, and potentially pave the way for similar approaches in other cancers.

Quickfire News

• Google upgraded Gemini with 1.5 Flash, providing faster responses, a 4x larger context window, and expanded access in over 40 languages and 230 countries.

• SAG-AFTRA announced a strike for video game performers starting July 26, citing concerns over AI protections in negotiations with major gaming studios, despite progress on wages and job safety.

• Sam Altman revealed in a tweet reply that the GPT-4o-Voice Alpha rollout will begin next week for Plus subscribers, expanding OpenAI's voice generation capabilities.

• Udio released version 1.5 of its AI music model, featuring improved audio quality, key control, and new features like stem downloads and audio-to-audio remixing.

• Runway's AI video generator reportedly trained on thousands of YouTube videos without permission, according to a leaked document obtained by 404 Media.

• Anthropic's web crawler allegedly violated website terms of use, with iFixit reporting nearly a million hits in 24 hours, raising concerns about AI companies' data collection practices.

• X (Twitter) automatically enabled a setting allowing user data, including interactions, posts, inputs, and results, to be used for training and fine-tuning its Grok AI.

• Morgan Stanley deployed its second in-house generative AI application, AI @ Morgan Stanley Debrief, which summarizes video meetings and generates follow-up email drafts.

• The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) released Dioptra, an open-source tool for testing AI model risk and measuring the impact of malicious attacks on AI system performance.

• Reddit intensified its crackdown on web crawlers by blocking major search engines from surfacing recent posts unless they pay, with Google being the only mainstream search engine showing recent results.

• Suno introduced a new feature for Pro & Premier users to separate vocals and instrumentals from AI-generated songs, allowing for more control and creative possibilities in music production.

• Stanford Engineering and Toyota Research achieved a milestone in autonomous driving by creating the world's first AI-directed, driverless tandem drift, aiming to advance the safety of automated driving in complex scenarios.

• Meta launched AI Studio, a platform allowing users to create, share, and discover custom AI characters without technical skills, built on Llama 3.1.

• Amazon unveiled its latest AI chip, claiming performance up to 50% higher than NVIDIA's at half the cost, as part of efforts to reduce reliance on external chips for its AWS AI cloud services.

• Apple revealed its Apple Intelligence Foundation Model technical report, detailing architecture specifics, pre-training methods, and deployment strategies for both server and on-device AI models.

• Scale AI announced its latest SEAL Leaderboard on Adversarial Robustness, evaluating AI models on their ability to handle red team-generated prompts across harm scenarios — with Google’s Gemini 1.5 Pro topping the leaderboard.

• Topology introduced the Continuous Learning Model (CLM), a new AI system that can remember interactions, learn autonomously, and develop an ‘emergent’ personality.

• Elon Musk predicted a future with 10 billion humanoid robots, more than the number of humans, describing it as a fundamental milestone in civilization.

• Midjourney released V6.1, featuring improved image quality, coherence, and text rendering, along with new upscaling and personalization models, offering faster processing and enhanced overall aesthetics.

• SoundHound AI launched its Chat AI voice assistant with integrated ChatGPT in Alfa Romeo and Citroën vehicles across Europe, expanding its presence in Stellantis brands and offering enhanced conversational experiences for drivers.

• Activision open-sourced the 'Caldera' map from Call of Duty: Warzone, providing a comprehensive data set for academic use, AI training, and content generation research in the gaming industry.

• Leonardo.Ai announced its acquisition by Canva, aiming to accelerate innovation in its AI-powered creative platform while maintaining independence and expanding research capabilities.

• 01.AI, founded by Kai-Fu Lee, unveiled Yi-Vision, a new Vision Language API designed for complex visual tasks, image understanding, and analysis.

• NVIDIA's Project GR00T introduced a new approach to scale robot data using Apple Vision Pro for teleoperation, RoboCasa for environment simulation, and MimicGen for motion, potentially revolutionizing data collection in robotics.

• Google expanded access to its "About this image" tool, making it available through Circle to Search and Google Lens, allowing users to quickly get context on images they encounter online or via messaging.

• Vimeo launched an AI-powered video translation tool that can translate video, audio, and captions into multiple languages while replicating the original speakers' voices.

• NEURA, a German robotics company, released a new video showcasing their humanoid robot 4NE-1 performing tasks like chopping vegetables, ironing clothes, solving puzzles, and more.

• Synthesia introduced "Personal Avatars," AI-generated lifelike avatars created from brief webcam or phone footage, allowing users to create short-form videos for social media in multiple languages.

• San Francisco supervisors banned the use of certain AI rental software like RealPage and Yardi — which were allegedly used by some landlords in the city to set higher rent prices based on competitor data.

• A study from the University of Leeds found that AI could help predict the risk of bowel cancer returning in patients, potentially assisting doctors in identifying high-risk cases and avoiding unnecessary chemotherapy.

Closing Thoughts

That’s it for us this week.

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